Stolwijk, Schuck, & de Vreese (2016). How anxiety and enthusiasm help explain the bandwagon effect. - Article summary

The bandwagon effect refers to voters increasing their support for the ‘winner’ in election polls. The underdog effect refers to voters increasing their support for the ‘loser’ in election polls.

Emotional excitement (1), enthusiasm of the crowd (2) and defection to avoid disappointment (3) are causes for the bandwagon effect. Media messages may evoke emotions which mediate the effects these messages have on attitudes.

The bandwagon effect consists of three effects:

1. Voters previously intending to vote for a losing party will be more likely to change their intention and vote for a winning party.
2. Voters intending to vote for a winning party will less likely to change their intention.
3. The bandwagon effect could occur for undecided voters who crystallize their intention due to poll exposure.

The bandwagon effect refers to a voter’s increased likelihood to vote for a party after exposure to more positive poll coverage about that party. The journalist interpretation of polls may be important for the bandwagon effect. The amount of polls a person is exposed to is also important for the bandwagon effect. The more polls are reported in a media outlet and the more frequent an individual uses this outlet, the higher the chances are for this individual to observe these polls.

Enthusiasm reinforces existing attitudes and beliefs. Anxiety leads to reconsideration of previously held beliefs which makes voting for the initially favoured party less likely. It might also be that vote choice is altered as a result of unexpected enthusiasm and anxiety (i.e. expectancy violation theory). This means that unexpected emotions make a vote switch more likely.

The effect of poll exposure on vote choice is positive. The effect of poll exposure on enthusiasm and party ratings is positive. The effect of enthusiasm and party ratings on vote choice is positive.

The effect of anxiety on party ratings and vote choice is negative. Emotions do not explain the bandwagon effect entirely.

Anxiety and enthusiasm are mediators between poll exposure and vote choice. If aversion does not play a specific and prominent role in an election campaign, then consecutive events are likely to trigger multiple negative emotions about a loathed party rather than just aversion. Emotions might become blended over time and could occur consecutively.

The influence of polls on vote choice relies more on the descriptions of journalists than on the bare poll figures by themselves. The amount of exposure to poll evaluations in the media contributes to individuals changing their vote intention over the course of the electoral campaign.