What is science? - Chapter 1
What is science? - Chapter 1
...........Read more- Login of registreer om te kunnen reageren
- 3068 keer gelezen
What is science? - Chapter 1
...........Read moreScientists arrive at beliefs by a thorough process of reasoning or inference: for example, Darwin never saw two species evolve from each other, he got there by a process.
There is deductive and inductive inference. Deduction is:
All Frenchmen like red wine. Pierre is a Frenchman. Therefore, Pierre likes red wine.
The first two statements are the premises of the inference, and the last one is the conclusion. Deduction means that if the premises are true, then the conclusion must be true. The truth of the premises guarantees the truth of the conclusion.
Induction is:
The first five eggs in the box were good. All the eggs have the same best-before date. Therefore, the sixth egg will be good. Here, the premises do not entail the conclusion. It's possible for the premises to be true and yet the conclusion false. So in induction, we move from premises about objects that we have examined, to conclusions about objects of the same kind that we have not examined. Induction is riskier than deduction, but we use it a lot in our daily lives: like when you turn on your computer, you think it won't explode, because it never did: but it is possible that it will so this is inductive reasoning. And you expect the sun to rise, because it always does. So we have faith in induction. Scientists also reason inductively, as they move from limited data to a general conclusion. But with induction you should not truly speak of "proof", as you never know for sure, unless it's deduction. So in this strict sense, scientific hypotheses can rarely if ever be truly proved.
Popper said scientists only need to use deduction, because a scientific theory can not be proved true but can be proved false, and this is then by the process of deduction. But the goal of science is not just to refute theories but to find true, or probably true, theories, and for that, induction is needed.
Hume said that using induction cannot be rationally justified. He said yes, we use it all the time, but it's just like a brute animal habit, and there's no way of giving a good, satisfactory reason for using it. So why did Hume think this? He noted that as we use induction, we seem to presuppose the uniformity of nature: the assumption that objects we haven't examined will be similar to objects we have examined of the same kind. But we cannot prove if that's really true, because it's not a logical impossibility that there is no uniformity of nature. Hume's problem of induction means that if Hume is right and we believe in him, the foundations on which science is built basically fall apart.
Strawson came up with this analogy to react to Hume: when someone doesn't know if something is legal, they will read a lawbook. You cannot worry if the law itself is legal, as this is the standard against which legality is judged: it makes no sense to worry if the standard is legal. He then says that induction is also a standard we use to decide whether someone's beliefs about the world are justified, and it then makes no sense to ask if induction itself is justified.
So previously, the inferences took us from examined to unexamined. But there is another type of inferencing:
The cheese has disappeared, apart from a few crumbs. Scratching noises were heard last night. Therefore, the cheese was eaten by a mouse.
This inference is non-deductive: the premises do not entail the conclusion. Still, the inference is reasonable, as this hypothesis is a better explanation than any other explanation (usually because it's the most simple, yet sufficient, one). Some say this IBE is a type of inductive inference, and others say it's a different thing. IBE, thus basically meaning: reasoning from specific data to a theory or hypothesis that explains the data, is frequently used by scientists as well. However, then the simplicity rule is not always liked: this is still up for debate.
An important goal of science is to find out the causes of natural phenomena. And since causal connections are not directly observable, some inferring must occur. There is a distinction between inferring the cause of a specific event, versus inferring a general causal principle; on which we will focus.
First, a correlation should be found. But when there is correlation, this does not always mean causation, for example due to the common cause scenario (something else, found in both things, is actually the cause). A possible other variable should be controlled.
Some say only controlled experiments can reliably show causality. However, the technique of statistical control can also work to show causality in observational data.
A randomized controlled trial (RCT) contains a control group, and goes with random assignment to the groups. Lots of people say random assignment is necessary to find true causality, because it eliminates the effect of other factors, since the randomization makes sure these are unlikely to be over-represented in either group. But RCTS are not always possible, and valid causality can be established in other ways too.
Probability has both an objective and subjective side. The objective side is about how often things tend to happen, for example when someone says: the probability that the coin will land on heads is half, you know what that means. Statements about probability are then objectively true or false. Then, the subjective side is about probability being a measure of rational degree of belief. For example, a scientist says that the probability of finding life on Mars is very low. Ultimately, there is life or there isn't, but talking about probability in this context reflects that we don't know for certain which one it is. However, the evidence we have, makes the rational degree of belief that there is life on Mars very low. Thus, a rational degree of belief in a scientific hypothesis, also called the scientist's credence, shows the probability. It is a number between zero and one. The credence can increase or decrease with new information (depending on if the information supports or contradicts the hypothesis.
The general rule for updating your credence, after new information, has to do with conditionalization. This means: when there is new, true evidence, your new credence should be set equal to your initial credence conditional on the assumption of this evidence.
Shown in symbols:
- H: particular hypothesis. - P(H): credence in H. - P-new-(H): updated credence after new evidence. - E = evidence. - P(H/E): credence in H conditional on the assumption that E is true. - P(H and E): credence that both H and E are true. - P(E): possibility of what the evidence is actually happening.
The rule of conditionalization then is: Upon learning evidence E, P-new-(H) should equal P(H/E).
And: P(H/E) is equal to the ratio: P(H and E) divided by P(E).
The conditionalization rule was discovered by Bayes, and the branch of statistics known as Bayesian statistics uses updating by conditionalization a lot. And though the rule sounds complicated, we often obey it without thinking. This Bayesian view of scientific interference sheds light on aspects of the scientific method. But not all scientific interference can come from Bayesian reasoning, since Bayesian reasoning does not explain coming up with new theories, as happens often. And another limitation is about the source of the initial credence. the initial credence then purely subjective?
Science wants to explain the world around us, partly for practical ends, and partly to satisfy our curiosity. But what is scientific explanation? Our starting point to look at this question will be Carl Hempel who thought about this in the 1950s.
Hempel figured that scientific explanations are usually given in response to "explanation-seeking why-questions", so questions that demand explanation. A scientific explanation provides an answer, and to know what a scientific explanation is, he thought, the essential features of such an answer should be determined.
He said scientific explanations usually have the logical structure of an argument: a set of premises, followed by a conclusion. The conclusion states that the phenomenon that needs explaining occurs and the premises then tell us why this is true. So the premises should explain the conclusion. Hempel's answer to this problem contained three things. First, the premises should entail the conclusion: thus, deduction. Second, the premises should all be true. And third, they should consist of at least one general law, sometimes also called laws of nature.
The phenomenon to be explained is named the explanandum and the general laws and particular facts that explain it are the explanans. The explanandum may be either specific or general.
So, this model says that the essence of explanation is to show that the phenomenon is "covered" by a certain law of nature. But not all scientific explanations fit this model. Hempel knew this, but said that if the explanation were spelled out completely and very detailed, there would still be some law of nature. Furthermore, Hempel said that every scientific explanation can also be a prediction. If the phenomenon was not yet known, it could have predicted it. And then also reliable prediction is also a possible explanation. So explanation and prediction are structurally symmetric. However, in some cases this definitely does not work, not everything that can be predicted can also be explained in the same way later.
Still, there are cases that fit Hempel's model but are not really scientific explanations. Two cases are:
The problem of symmetry. Explanation is an asymmetric relation: that x explains y does not mean that y explains x in the same way. Hempel's model does not respect this asymmetric relation and therefore includes things that are not really scientific explanations.
The problem of irrelevance. A good explanation should contain the relevant information. "Explanations" that actually use the irrelevant information and can not be viewed as good explanations, but still have a correct structure of explaining, can be included in Hempel's model which is not good.
When looking for a better model, some believe the key lies in the concept of causality: because often, what causes something is what explains it. In some of the problems with the covering law model, the causal models do succeed. It could also be that because causality is obviously asymmetrical, explanations are asymmetric too.
Hempel was an empiricist, and empiricists are often suspicious of the causality concept. Empiricism states that all knowledge comes from experience. Like Hume, who thought: it's impossible to experience causal relations, so they don't actually exist; it's what we, humans, make of it. Empiricists treated causality with much caution, which is why Hempel did not take it into account. In recent years, empiricism has decreased in popularity.
Still, also causality-based accounts encounter less fitting cases. For example, theoretical identifications, like: water is H2O or temperature is molecular kinetic energy. These terms explain what these concepts are, but it has nothing to do with causality.
There's many things science has explained, and there's many things left to uncover, probably possible due to always evolving science. However, some philosophers think science will never explain everything, because in order to explain something, something else needs to be invoked - and what explains the second thing then? Fundamental laws have to be used and probably at least some will themselves remain unexplained. Some philosophers think for example consciousness, and its subjective aspect, can never be fully explained. But it seems that only time can really tell.
Most people think of physics as the most fundamental science, since all of the other sciences also study things that are made up of physical particles. Still, the other sciences seem largely autonomous and also important. But why can the other sciences not be reducible to physics? Some philosophers say that's because the objects studied by the higher-level sciences are multiply realized at the physical level. There is no limit on the range of different physical properties that a lot of things can have, because they are multiply realized at the physical level. For example, you can not say: "x is an ashtray if and only if x is...." as there are so many possibilities. The vocabulary of fundamental physics is not elusive enough for this.
Realism holds that the physical world exists independently of human thought and perception. An opposing side, idealism, thinks that the physical world is in some way dependent on conscious human activity. It is a long-term debate in philosophy, belonging to the area of metaphysics. A similar debate, that is really about science, and what is of concern in this text, is about the debate between scientific realism and anti-realism/instrumentalism.
Scientific realists think that science aims to have a true description of the world, and that it often succeeds in this. Anti-realists think that the aim of science is to find empirically adequate theories, meaning that it correctly predicts the results of experimenting and observation. For them it's truly about empirical adequacy and not truth. Physicists may talk about unobservable entities, but they are basically convenient fictions, introduced to help predict observable things. Whereas realists see the theorizing about unobservable things as true attempts to describe the world. Anti-realists are often called instrumentalists, because they see theories as instruments to help predict observable things, instead of as attempts to understand reality. And anti-realists often come from the viewpoints of empiricism. They also think that the models often used in science support their view, as they contain assumptions known to be false (but otherwise it would be too complex), and so they could never truly explain the world, but they could succeed in empirical adequacy.
Realists do not agree that scientific knowledge is limited by what we can experience. They feel there is every reason to believe our best scientific theories, and they talk about unobservable entities. Realists also think that science goes for approximate truth, when exact truth is difficult, and models can help greatly with this.
The "no miracles" argument is basically about the fact that there are theories which focus on unobservable entities, that have great empirical success. It says it would be a crazy coincidence if a theory makes accurate predictions about things that do not even exist. And if these entities are just convenient fictions like the anti-realists maintain, why do these successful theories have successful practical implications too? Is it a miracle? So this is an argument for scientific realists. It is a plausability argument: an inference to the best explanation. This means it might not prove that realism is right, but the best explanation for the fact that these theories have empirical success, might be that the theories are true, which supports the realism's view.
One anti-realist response to the "no miracles" argument, is that there are many theories that seemed empirically successful but later turned out false. So the inference from empirical success to theoretical truth is not always accurate, say the anti-realists.
Realists have responded to this again, by modifying the argument in two ways. The first adjustment is that they claim that a theory's empirical success may not show complete and full truth, but at least it shows approximate truth. And the second adjustment refines the notion of empirical success. When saying empirical success is not just about fitting known data, but also about predicting new observations, it's less easy to find examples of empirically successful theories that turned out to be false. But still, there are some, so the "no miracles" argument is still kind of challenged.
It seems easy, but it actually is philosophically problematic. One of the main arguments for realism is that it's not possible to make the distinction in a principled way. This is against anti-realism because since they claim that science cannot give us knowledge of unobservable things, they presume there is a distinction.
One of the issues is the relation between observation and detection. Some entities are not really observable, but can be detected using apparatus. But this is not always clear to distinguish. So when is something observed and when is it detected? It seems to be a smooth continuum. Realists use this in their advance because it speaks against anti-realism, just like the fact that scientists often talk about 'observing' when using detectors.
Anti-realists response with saying okay, maybe it is a vague term, but a vague term can still be used well. There may be clear-cut cases and less clear-cut cases, depending on the kind of entity, but according to anti-realists, like Bas van Fraassen who contradicts realist's Maxwell's claims, observable or not observable is still something that can be distinguished.
Anti-realists also need an argument for why knowledge of unobservable things is impossible. One argument focuses on the relation between empirical data and theories. The underdeterimination argument, by anti-realists, says that scientific theories which are about unobservable entities are underdetermined by the empirical data, because there can be other theories or explanations for the outcomes, as only observable phenomena can be tested and the unobservable things can not. The idea of underdetermination leads to the anti-realist conclusion that agnosticism is the attitude to take towards theories about unobservable things.
Realists respond by saying that there always may be more possible explanations, but this does not mean the explanations are equally good. So one theory can always come up as the best one. And it seems underdetermination is not a true problem in actual scientific practice, as it's often difficult to find just one fitting theory, let alone multiple.
However, anti-realists feel that these philosophical worries are still genuine and important even if the practical implications are not really there. They also feel like there is never a good way of finding out which theory is the best one when there are multiple.
Realists have another comeback though, as they say anti-realists apply the underdetermination argument selectively. They think that if it's applied accurately, even knowledge of much of the observable world can not remain, because: what is observable, is not always actually truly observed, and so there can be other explanations. And so, if we apply this argument consistently, there's almost no scientific knowledge anymore, as much science is about unobserved things. It seems underdetermination can not really be a barrier to knowledge. Some even say the underdetermination argument is just Hume's problem of induction put another way.
The dominant post-war philosophical movement was logical empiricism. Hempel and Popper were part of this movement. It started in the 1920s and went on until the mid-1960s. They had a high regard for the natural sciences and maths and all the exciting scientific advances, they even wanted to make philosophy more scientific. They loved the apparent objectivity in science, and viewed it as a rational activity. They paid little attention to the history of scientific ideas, because they drew a distinction between the "context of discovery" and the "context of justification". The context of discovery meant the actual historical process, by which a scientist arrives at a theory, and the context of justification is the means by which the scientist tries to justify a theory once they have it. The logical empiricists viewed the context of discovery as subjective and the context of justification as objective, and so they focused on the latter. Another theme in logical empiricism was the distinction between theories and observational facts. They believed disagreements between theories could be solved by comparing the theories with the neutral observational facts.
Kuhn was a philosopher that also focused on the philosophy around scientific change. He thought that the fact that too little attention was paid to the history of science had led the logical empiricists to have an inaccurate view of science. He was very interested in scientific revolutions, where there was a fundamental change in scientific worldview. When there was no scientific revolution at that time, he would call it "normal science". Central to his idea of normal science is the concept of a paradigm. A paradigm consists of two main components: namely a set of fundamental theoretical assumptions which all members of a scientific community accept, and a set of exemplars, or particular scientific problems, which have been solved using those theoretical assumptions, and which appear in the textbooks of the discipline. A paradigm is basically an entire scientific outlook, which unites a scientific community, and allows normal science to happen.
Normal science is, according to Kuhn, basically puzzle-solving. A paradigm will encounter problems, and a scientist should "solve" these problems, while making as few changes to the paradigm as possible. So, normal science is conservative. Normal scientists do not want to test the paradigm, says Kuhn.
A period of normal science can last very long, but over time anomalies are discovered (problems to the paradigm that can not be fixed). As these anomalies accumulate, there is some sort of crisis in the scientific community, where confidence in the paradigm decreases. Then, a period of revolutionary science comes through, and there is a search for a new paradigm. When all members of the scientific community are won over to the new paradigm, the scientific revolution is completed, and this can take quite a while.
Kuhn also advanced some controversial philosophical theses. He said that adopting a new paradigm also involves some kind of faith on the part of the scientist. Just reasoning or evidence is not enough, as faith is also necessary. He also talked about the peer pressure of scientists on one another, when discussing how paradigms gain acceptance in the scientific community. A lot of people were shocked by this, because Kuhn included these subjective elements of faith and peer pressure, making science not as rational as many wanted it to be.
Kuhn was also controversial in discussing the overall direction of scientific change. The dominant view was that science progresses towards the truth in a linear fashion. Newer, correcter ideas replace older, less accurate ones. Kuhn disagreed with this. And Kuhn also doubted if the term objective truth even makes sense: he doubted that there was a fixed set of facts about the world, independent of paradigms. He thought facts about the world are paradigm-relative. He was very anti-realistic.
For these claims, Kuhn had two main philosophical arguments. Firstly, he said that competing paradigms are "incommensurable" with another. This means that the paradigms are so different, there is no comparison possible, and there is no common language in which both can be translated. So, before and after a paradigm shift, according to Kuhn scientists "live in different worlds". Kuhn was very holistic. He thought that scientific concepts get their meaning from the theory in which they play a part. So for example to understand Newton's concept of mass, you need to understand the whole Newtonian theory. This is because mass can mean different things in different theories, Kuhn said.
Kuhn used his idea of incommensurability to discredit the view that paradigm shifts are completely objective, and also to support his non-cumulative view of the history of science. He thought, since you can not compare two viewpoints as they are basically in different languages, subjectivity is always included. And if old and new paradigms are incommensurable, there is not a linear development of science possible. Later is not always better, as it's completely different and not comparable.
Kuhn did not convince many other philosophers with this theory. Part of the problem was that Kuhn also said old and new paradigms are incompatible, which makes sense because if they were compatible, there would be no need to choose. But, if two things are incommensurable, then they cannot be incompatible: because only if the proposition has the same meaning in two different theories, there can be a true disagreement. So, in this way, incommensurability does not really make sense.
In response to this, Kuhn adjusted his thesis. He now said partial translation between paradigms could occur, so to some extent the paradigms could communicate. But still he said fully objective choic between them was impossible. He said, next to the incommensurability coming from the lack of a common language, there is also something called "incommensurability of standards". This is the idea that different paradigms may disagree about what features a good paradigm should have, and how it should handle things, etc. So, Kuhn said, even if they can communicate, they will not be able to agree on the best paradigm.
Kuhn's second argument had to do with an idea known as the "theory-ladenness" of data. He disagreed with the belief in "neutral" data that could show which theory is the best one, as the logical empiricists believed, because he thought neutral data did not exist. Data is always contaminated with theoretical assumptions, he thought. This idea had two important consequences for Kuhn. Firstly, it meant that a disagreement between two paradigms could not be fixed by just looking at the data or the facts, because the paradigm influences the data. So, objective choice is just not possible as there is no neutral starting point. Secondly, the idea of objective truth is shaky, because to be objectively true a theory must correspond to the facts; but according to Kuhn the facts are actually already infected by theories. So Kuhn figured truth is relative to a paradigm.
So, why did Kuhn think all data is theory-laden? He argued that perception is always conditioned by background beliefs. And also, scientists' reports are often done in very theoretical language, thus already displaying theory.
Many philosophers agree that pure theory-neutrality is not possible. But still, there are statements that are sufficiently theory-neutral to be accepted by multiple paradigms, so the whole objectivity of paradigm shifts does not need to be completely compromised. For example, statements like "on May 14th the sun rose at 7.10 am" can be agreed on whether you believe in a heliocentric or geocentric theory.
Not many agree when it comes to Kuhn's rejection of objective truth. However, this is greatly because of Kuhn's failure to come up with a good alternative. And when you claim that truth is paradigm-relative, is that even objective truth? Because you can not say yes or no to that question without discrediting the theory, it does not really make sense.
Kuhn's work was interpreted as very radical, and later he moderated his tone hugely. He now said he did not try to cast doubt on the rationality of science, but just wanted to offer a more realistic, historically accurate view of how science develops. When he talked about this, he claimed that there is 'no algorithm' for theory choice in science: thus, there is no set of rules which tells us which theory to choose, as was actually believed implicitly all this time. Kuhn is probably right that there is no algorithm. An element of subjective judgment, or scientific common sense, is often needed. So, if there's no algorithm, it can be concluded that scientific change is irrational, or that the conception of rationality at work is too demanding. A more relaxed concept of rationality is necessary to make sense of paradigm shifts.
Kuhn transformed philosophy in science because he questioned things that were basically taken as the truth, and also drew attention to things that were ignored until then. He shook the philosophical world. He focused more on the historical development and also focused more on the social context in which science takes place. A sociological movement known as the 'strong program' owes much to Kuhn and is based on the idea that science should be looked at as a product of the society in which it is practiced. Strong program sociologists used some of Kuhn's ideas but were more radical and less cautious, openly rejecting the terms of truth and rationality, and being very suspicious of traditional philosophy of science. That is why there was, and even now is, some tension between philosophers and sociologists of science.
Kuhn's work also played a role in the rise of social constructionism in humanities and social sciences. This is the idea that certain phenomena are "social constructs" instead of having an objective mind-independent existence. Some also think science is a social construct, and they often have an anti-scientific attitude. Kuhn however, though he emphasized social context, was very pro-science.
Join with a free account for more service, or become a member for full access to exclusives and extra support of WorldSupporter >>
JoHo WorldSupporter mission and vision:
JoHo concept:
Volunteering: WorldSupporter moderators and Summary Supporters
Volunteering: Share your summaries or study notes
Student jobs: Part-time work as study assistant in Leiden
Search only via club, country, goal, study, topic or sector
Select any filter and click on Search to see results