Critical thinkingArticle: Foster (2010)Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology(the part needed for psychology at the UvA)Four premises Causal inference is essential to accomplishing the goals of developmental psychologistsIn many analyses, psychologists unfortunately are attempting causal inference but doing so badly, based on many implicit and, in some cases, implausible assumptions.These assumptions should be identified explicitly and checked empirically and conceptuallyOnce introduced to the broader issues, developmental psychologists will recognize the central importance of causal inference and naturally embrace the methods available. Causal thinking and causal inference are unavoidable. Even if researchers can distinguish associations from causal relationships, lay readers, journalists, policymakers, and other researchers generally cannot.If a researcher resist the urge to jump form association to causality, other researchers seem willing to do so on his or her behalf.Causal inference as the goal of developmental psychology the lesson is not that causal relationships can never be established outside of random assignment, but that they cannot be inferred from associations alone. Some additional assumptions are required. The goal of this research should be to make causal inference as plausible as possible.Doing so involves applying the best methods available among a growing set of tools. As part of the proper use of those tools, the researcher should identify the key assumptions on which they rest and their plausibility in any particular application. The researcher should check the consistency of those assumptions as...